Iran-UAE Conflict
What You Need to Know
Practical information for UAE residents during the current crisis. Emergency contacts, shelter guidance, flight status, and exit options — all in one place.
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The Situation
📋 Overview
Day 42 of the US-Israel war on Iran. Pakistan-brokered talks in Islamabad produced a draft “framework principles” document — 6 points including phased Hormuz reopening, partial sanctions relief, and nuclear inspection timeline. Corridor now at 20-22 vessels/day. Four consecutive days with zero UAE fire (Days 39-42). Oil dropped below $90 for the first time since the war began (~$89). Hezbollah announced a conditional pause on rocket fire pending ceasefire progress. Israel reduced strikes to 1-2 daily against IRGC logistics targets. Iran banking system ~70% restored. China's third PLA Navy tanker convoy scheduled for tomorrow. UAE malls back to normal operations, schools expanding reopening. Trump: “Beautiful progress, deal almost done.” Iran deputy FM: “Framework is preliminary, not final — sanctions relief must come first.” 7,200+ killed in Iran. 1,290+ killed in Lebanon. UAE: 12 killed, 185 injured total. April 13 deadline 3 days away.
Conflict Started
Feb 28, 2026
Status
Day 42 — Framework drafted, 4 days zero UAE fire
Partial — Framework principles drafted, corridor at 20-22 vessels/day
US Involvement
Active — 14 killed, 340+ wounded, 55,000+ troops deployed
📰 Latest News
💥 Recent Attacks
Apr 10, 2026
Day 42: Fourth consecutive day with zero incoming fire toward UAE. Pakistan talks produce draft “framework principles” — 6 points including phased Hormuz reopening, partial sanctions relief, and nuclear inspection timeline. Corridor hits 20-22 vessels/day — highest since war began. Hezbollah announces conditional pause on rocket fire pending ceasefire progress. Oil drops below $90 for first time (~$89). Israel reduces strikes to 1-2 daily against IRGC logistics targets. Iran banking system ~70% restored. Trump: “Beautiful progress, deal almost done.” Iran deputy FM: “Framework is preliminary, not final.” UAE malls back to normal, schools expanding reopening. China's 3rd tanker convoy scheduled for tomorrow. Markets rally — DFM +3.4%, S&P +1.2%.
Apr 9, 2026
Day 41: Third consecutive day with zero incoming fire toward UAE. Corridor steady at 18-20 vessels/day — highest since war began. Trump tweets “deal very close, could be tremendous” ahead of April 13 deadline. Iran FM Araghchi: “Actions, not words — we need sanctions relief, not tweets.” Israel strikes IRGC logistics depot in Kermanshah — 4th strike on Iranian military targets this week. Hezbollah rocket fire drops to lowest since war began (~30/day, down from 200+ peak). Oil drops to ~$92. UAE begins limited school reopening in Abu Dhabi and Dubai. Iran banking system ~60% restored. Markets continue cautious rally — DFM +2.1%, S&P +0.8%.
Apr 8, 2026
Day 40: Second day with no UAE fire. Corridor expands to 18 vessels — 3 more than opening day. IAEA releases preliminary Fordow assessment: radiation elevated but “not catastrophic” — contamination limited to 2km radius around facility, no civilian exposure detected. Pakistan talks resume in Islamabad — Iran deputy FM and US envoy meet for 4 hours. China's second PLA Navy tanker convoy (5 vessels) transits Hormuz safely. Israel strikes 2 IRGC command posts in western Iran. Iran banking system ~40% restored — ATMs working in Tehran, Isfahan. Oil drops to ~$94. India announces 2nd evacuation wave — 3,100 more nationals to leave UAE this week.
Apr 7, 2026
Day 39: First day with zero incoming fire toward UAE — air defense crews stand down for first time since war began. Humanitarian corridor holding: 15 vessels transited Hormuz yesterday under Iranian inspection. Iran fires 4 missile salvos at Israeli military targets, avoids Gulf states. IRGC deputy commander warns corridor “can close in 60 seconds.” Oil ~$97 — lowest since war began. Markets rally globally. UAE lifts 3-day bank closure. Cyber front: Iran restores partial banking after Israeli/NSA takedown. US: 14 killed, 340+ wounded, 55,000+ deployed.
Apr 6, 2026
Day 38: Deadline day — Pakistan brokers “humanitarian shipping corridor” through Hormuz. Iran agrees to allow 15-20 inspected vessels/day — no military cargo, no US/Israeli-flagged ships. Trump extends deadline to April 13, claims credit for “tremendous diplomatic breakthrough.” Iran FM: “This is not peace, this is a pause.” Israel continues strikes on Iranian military targets. Oil crashes 11% to ~$98 on corridor news. Stock markets surge — DFM +8%, S&P +3.2%.
Apr 5, 2026
Day 37: Intense back-channel diplomacy ahead of April 6 deadline. Pakistan PM shuttles between Tehran and Islamabad with revised 8-point framework. China announces it will “not stand idle” if power grid is struck. Iran fires 6 drone swarms at Israeli bases in Negev — 4 intercepted, 2 hit perimeter fences. UAE intercepts 2 missiles, 8 drones. UAE banks closed for 3rd day from cyber attack on SWIFT gateway. Oil $109.
Apr 4, 2026
Day 36: Massive cyber offensive — Israel/NSA shut down Iran's entire banking system. Iran retaliates with cyberattack on UAE Central Bank, disrupting SWIFT payments. 3 UAE banks suspend operations. Iran fires cruise missiles at Israeli airbase in Negev. Hezbollah fires 200+ rockets at northern Israel. UAE intercepts 3 missiles, 12 drones. Saudi intercepts 8 drones over Jubail industrial city. Oil $111. 8,000+ killed regionally.
Apr 3, 2026
Day 35: Iran fires largest missile barrage at Israel since war began — 47 ballistic missiles in single salvo. 3 break through Iron Dome/Arrow, killing 12 in Tel Aviv suburbs — deadliest single attack on Israel. Netanyahu vows “historic response.” US deploys THAAD battery to northern Israel. UAE intercepts 4 missiles, 15 drones. Oil $113. 7,500+ killed in Iran.
Apr 2, 2026
Day 34: China begins escorting its own tankers through Hormuz with PLA Navy destroyers — first direct Chinese military intervention. Iran permits passage. 3 Chinese tankers transit safely. Russia deploys Admiral Gorshkov frigate to Gulf of Oman. US warns China against “unilateral action.” Israel strikes IRGC command bunker in Kermanshah, killing 2 senior commanders. Oil drops to $106 on Chinese convoy news.
Apr 1, 2026
Day 33: Israel strikes Fordow underground enrichment facility with US-provided GBU-57 bunker busters — deepest strike of the war. IAEA reports “concerning” radiation readings near Natanz. Iran vows “unimaginable retaliation.” Trump: “Iran's nuclear program is finished.” UAE: intercepted debris damages school in Sharjah — 5 children injured. Oil $108. Pakistan PM offers to host peace talks.
Mar 31, 2026
Day 32: Israel strikes Iranian state TV headquarters in Tehran — 22 journalists killed, drawing global condemnation including from Reporters Without Borders and EU. Iran launches 200+ drones at Gulf targets in retaliation. UAE intercepts 5 missiles, 22 drones. Saudi air defenses shoot down 14 drones. Kuwait port of Shuaiba hit again. 1 US soldier killed by roadside IED in Iraq (total: 14). Oil $107.
Mar 30, 2026
Day 31: Iran deploys new “Kheibar Shekan-2” missiles with improved guidance — 2 hit within 50m of Al Dhafra runway. UAE airspace closed 4 hours. Abu Dhabi mall evacuated after drone debris crashes through glass roof — 8 injured. Hezbollah fires 150+ rockets at northern Israel. Iran: 6,100+ killed. India evacuates 4,200 nationals from UAE via special Air India flights.
Mar 29, 2026
Day 30: Secret Pakistan-brokered talks begin in Islamabad — Iran sends deputy FM, US sends envoy via Oman. Israel not at table. Trump says “there will be a deal or there will be consequences.” Iran fires 8 drone swarms at Bahrain and Saudi — 6 intercepted, 2 hit empty industrial zone. UAE intercepts 3 missiles, 17 drones. 1 Filipino worker killed by shrapnel in Ajman — UAE death toll rises to 12. Oil $106.
Mar 28, 2026
Day 29: Israel escalates strikes after hitting nuclear facilities. Iran's Arak heavy water reactor and Yazd yellowcake plant confirmed targeted — no radiation leaks reported. Iran rejects US offer as “one-sided and unfair.” Pakistan mediating possible in-person talks this weekend. UN Security Council holds closed-door consultations at Russia's request. VP Vance reportedly chides Netanyahu for “overselling regime change.” Oil ~$108. ~350 children killed across region.
Mar 27, 2026
Day 28: Israel strikes Iran's nuclear facilities — Yazd yellowcake uranium plant (“only one of its kind”) and Khondab/Arak heavy water reactor hit. US-Israeli strikes damage two major Iranian steel plants. US confirms ~two-thirds of Iran's missile/drone production destroyed. US airstrike on Habbaniyah base kills 5-7 Iraqi soldiers, wounds 23. 120+ Iranian historical sites damaged. Oil $107.81. 1,900+ killed in Iran (1,500 civilians, 217+ children).
Mar 26, 2026
Day 27: Israel kills IRGC Navy chief Admiral Tangsiri in airstrike at Bandar Abbas near Hormuz. Trump extends energy strike pause 10 days to April 6 — says talks “going very well.” Iran rejects direct talks. 6 Gulf states (UAE, Saudi, Kuwait, Bahrain, Qatar, Jordan) issue joint condemnation. Abu Dhabi: intercepted debris kills 2 (Indian, Pakistani nationals), injures 3. Kuwait's Shuwaikh port hit by dawn drone attack. Oil $105.85.
Mar 25, 2026
Day 26: Saudi Arabia intercepts 32+ drones and 1 ballistic missile in Eastern Province — major oil facilities targeted. Iran receives US 15-point peace proposal via Pakistan — rejects it as “extremely maximalist.” Iran's 5-point counterproposal demands war reparations and Hormuz sovereignty. Iran says “non-hostile” ships from China, Russia, India, Iraq, Pakistan can transit Hormuz. DXB Terminal 3 debris from intercept injures 2. UAE: 11 killed, 169 injured total. Oil drops below $100 briefly.
Mar 24, 2026
Day 25: IDF conducts “extensive” strikes on Isfahan Province — 600+ strikes on Iranian missile sites since war began. Iran fires 9 attack waves with cluster munitions at Israel. 1,000 troops from 82nd Airborne deploying to Middle East. Japan releases 30 days of oil reserves. Kuwait airport drone strike causes fire. Oil $102.47 (+43% from one month ago).
Mar 23, 2026
Day 24: Trump postpones planned strikes on Iran's power plants for 5 days, citing “productive conversations.” Iran denies any direct talks — says Trump trying to lower oil prices. US airstrike on Habbaniyah base (Iraq) kills 15 fighters including PMF commander. Iran threatens to mine “entire Persian Gulf.” Missile warning issued across UAE. Oil drops to ~$101 on deal hopes. 2,000 vessels and 20,000 seafarers stranded at Hormuz.
Mar 22, 2026
Day 23: Trump issues 48-hour ultimatum — reopen Hormuz or US will “hit and obliterate” Iran's power plants. Iran warns it will target all US/Israeli energy infrastructure if attacked. Iran military says Hormuz will be “completely closed” if US follows through. Oil ~$112/barrel. 4,500+ killed across the region.
Mar 21, 2026
Day 22: Iranian missiles break through Israeli defenses — direct hits on Dimona and Arad, wounding ~100. Missile debris lands near Temple Mount/Al-Aqsa in Jerusalem. Israel kills IRGC spokesman Ali Mohammad Naini. HRANA: 3,100+ killed in Iran, 50%+ of strikes hitting Tehran. Gold crashes 10% weekly — worst since 1983.
Mar 20, 2026
Day 21: Iran hits Kuwait's Mina Al-Ahmadi refinery for second straight day — fires across multiple units. Trump says considering “winding down” war, even as more Marines deploy to region. UAE intercepts 4 missiles, 26 drones. UAE arrests 100+ people for filming attacks. Israel kills IRGC spokesman. UAE dismantles Hezbollah/Iran-linked network.
Mar 19, 2026
Day 20: Oil hits $115/barrel after South Pars strike. Iran fires 5 missile salvos at Jerusalem and northern Israel — exceptional scale. 54 Hezbollah attack waves against Israel in one day. Israel strikes 200+ targets including Tehran, Parchin, Kerman, Arak. Iran hits Kuwait's largest oil refinery. QatarEnergy reports “extensive damage” at Ras Laffan.
Mar 18, 2026
Day 19: Major escalation — Israel strikes South Pars gas field (world's largest) and Asaluyeh refinery with US coordination. Strike disables most of Iran's gas production. Oil jumps to $108. Iran retaliates against Gulf energy infrastructure. Israel bombs central Beirut, killing 6+. UAE intercepts 13 missiles, 27 drones. Lebanon: 1,000+ killed, 1M displaced.
Mar 17, 2026
Day 18: UAE briefly closes airspace after intercepting new missile and drone wave — flights resume within hours. Israel launches “wide-scale wave of strikes” across Tehran. Israel kills Iran security chief Ali Larijani. 1,444 killed in Iran, 18,551 injured. Israel stepping up strikes on Hezbollah in Lebanon — 850+ killed, 1M+ displaced.
Mar 16, 2026
Day 17: Iranian drone ignites fuel tank near Dubai airport — flights disrupted for hours. Missile hits car in Abu Dhabi, killing Palestinian resident. Drone strikes near Fairmont The Palm again — 4 injured. UAE intercepts 6 missiles and 21 drones. Trump demands NATO/China patrol Hormuz — Australia and Japan refuse. Iran FM: “We never asked for a ceasefire.”
Mar 14–15, 2026
Day 15-16: US bombs Iran's Kharg Island — its biggest oil terminal. Trump: “We may hit it again just for fun.” Iran vows retaliation. UAE intercepts 9 missiles, 33 drones. 1,000+ tankers stranded at Hormuz. Trump urges allies to send warships — muted response. IDF hits 200+ targets in western/central Iran. Israel launches “limited” ground operations in Lebanon. Iran FM says war “must end” but rejects ceasefire.
Mar 12–13, 2026
Day 13-14: Six US airmen killed when KC-135 refueling plane crashes in western Iraq. Mojtaba Khamenei gives first address — vows to keep Hormuz closed. Hegseth claims Khamenei is “likely disfigured.” Iran fires 5-hour barrage at Israel — missiles near Jerusalem Old City. US lifts restrictions on Russian oil sales to offset crisis. Bahrain: 114 missiles, 190 drones intercepted since war began.
Mar 10–11, 2026
Day 11-12: US declares “most intense day of strikes” inside Iran. 11 B-1, 3 B-52 bombers deployed to RAF Fairford. Iran fires lowest missiles since war began. US destroys 16 Iranian minelayers near Hormuz — Iran had laid “less than 10” naval mines. 3 ships hit by projectiles near Hormuz (Japanese, Thai, Marshall Islands flagged). IEA releases strategic oil reserves. US investigating Tomahawk strike on Iranian girls school (175 killed).
Mar 9, 2026
Day 10: Mojtaba Khamenei named Iran's new supreme leader — Trump calls it “a big mistake.” Oil soars past $100, hits $119.50 intraday. Qatar struck by 17 ballistic missiles and 6 drones. 7 US soldiers killed total. IDF launches “extensive” airstrikes in three areas of Iran. 2 UAE Armed Forces killed in helicopter crash (technical malfunction). UAE envoy tells UN: “will not partake in any attacks on Iran.” Iran rules out immediate ceasefire. 11,000+ flights canceled across Middle East.
Mar 8, 2026
Day 9: Three shelter alerts in Abu Dhabi between 8:30-10:55am. Israel strikes Tehran oil depots — blackened rain reported. Bahrain desalination plant hit, Kuwait fuel depot struck. Iran's new supreme leader chosen but unnamed. US State Dept operating evacuation flights from UAE.
Mar 7, 2026
Day 8: Iran strikes Al Dhafra air base shortly after Iranian president briefly apologized for Gulf strikes. UAE president says “prepared to confront threats.” French naval base Camp de la Paix in Abu Dhabi hit by drones. US orders non-emergency staff to leave UAE.
Mar 5–6, 2026
UAE intercepts 6 of 7 ballistic missiles and 125 of 131 drones. One missile lands in UAE. Trump demands “unconditional surrender.” Oil surges 35% for biggest weekly gain since 1983. Brent hits $92.69.
Feb 28, 2026
US-Israel launch Operation Epic Fury — coordinated strikes on Iran kill Supreme Leader Khamenei. Iran retaliates across Gulf. UAE activates NCEMA emergency protocols. 233 ballistic missiles, 1,359 drones intercepted by UAE total.
🇮🇷 Iran's Position
Humanitarian corridor through Hormuz expanding — 18-20 vessels/day now transiting under Iranian inspection, up from 15 on Day 38. FM Araghchi at Islamabad talks (Day 40): “Actions, not words — we need sanctions relief, not tweets.” IAEA preliminary Fordow assessment (Day 40): radiation elevated but “not catastrophic” — contamination limited to 2km radius. Iran fired largest missile barrage at Israel (Day 35) — 3 broke through, 12 killed in Tel Aviv. Banking system ~60% restored after Israeli/NSA cyber attack. China's second tanker convoy transited safely (Day 40). Israel continues limited strikes on IRGC military targets. 7,200+ killed in Iran. ~75% of missile/drone production destroyed. 150+ historical sites damaged. Hezbollah announces conditional pause on rocket fire.
- •Corridor expanding — 18-20 vessels/day through Hormuz, up from 15 on opening day
- •IAEA Fordow assessment: radiation “not catastrophic” — 2km contamination radius
- •7,200+ killed (~4,900 civilians, 390+ children). 150+ historical sites damaged.
- •Banking system ~60% restored — ATMs working in Tehran, Isfahan. SWIFT partially back.
- •China's 2nd tanker convoy transits safely (Day 40) — PLA Navy now a permanent Hormuz presence
- •Hezbollah rocket fire drops to ~30/day (down from 200+ peak) — lowest since war began
🇦🇪 UAE Response
UAE air defenses intercepted 395 ballistic missiles, 18 cruise missiles, and 2,050 drones over 38 days of fighting — ~46% of all Iranian projectiles targeted the UAE. Four consecutive days with zero incoming fire (Days 39-42) since corridor deal. 12 killed (3 military incl. 2 Emirati, 1 Moroccan; 9 civilians from Indian, Pakistani, Nepalese, Bangladeshi, Filipino, and Palestinian nationalities), 185 injured (from 31 nationalities). Limited school reopening began April 9 in Abu Dhabi and Dubai. Banking system fully restored after 3-day cyber disruption. India announced 2nd evacuation wave — 7,300 nationals total. UAE arrested 150+ for filming attacks.
- •THAAD and Patriot intercepted 395 missiles, 2,050 drones over 38 days of fire
- •4 consecutive days zero incoming fire (Days 39-42) — corridor holding
- •Schools and malls reopening, normal operations expanding (Apr 10) — cautious normalization
- •12 killed, 185 injured — banking system now fully restored after cyber attack
- •India 2nd evacuation wave — 7,300 nationals total. Other embassies running group flights.
- •150+ arrested for filming attacks — up to 2yr prison, AED 200K fines
UAE Daily Intercepts
395
Ballistic missiles
18
Cruise missiles
2,050
Drones (UAVs)
Source: UAE Ministry of Defence. Totals as of Apr 10. 12 killed, 185 injured (31 nationalities). Days 39-42: four consecutive days with zero incoming fire. Corridor at 20-22 vessels/day. Schools and malls reopening. Framework principles drafted at Pakistan talks.
🏥 Casualties & Damage
12
Killed in UAE
3 military (2 Emirati, 1 Moroccan), 9 civilians
185+
Injured in UAE
From 31 nationalities. Debris, blast, cyber.
7,200+
Killed in Iran
~4,800 civilians, 380+ children (WaPo/HRANA)
14
US Service Members Killed
340+ wounded (75% TBI). 55,000+ deployed.
1,290+
Killed in Lebanon
34+
Killed in Israel
8,800+
Total killed regionally
⚠️ Figures from multiple sources as of Apr 10. Iran: ~4,900 civilians killed (WaPo), Hengaw reports 8,800+ total. Lebanon: 1,290+ killed, 3,950+ injured (160 children, 56 health workers). UAE: 12 killed, 185 injured (Defence Ministry). US: 14 killed, 340+ wounded. Kuwait: 11 killed. Saudi: 4 killed. Bahrain: 3 killed. Israel: 34 killed (12 in Day 35 barrage). ~530 children killed across region. 55,000+ US troops deployed.
Regional Death Toll Over Time
8,800+ totalIran accounts for ~80% of deaths. WaPo: ~4,900 civilians killed as of Apr 10. Lebanon: 1,290+ killed, 3,800+ injured (145 children, 52 health workers). Israel: 34 killed (12 in Day 35 Tel Aviv barrage). ~500 children killed across region. Kuwait: 11 killed. Saudi: 4 killed. Bahrain: 3 killed.
📜 Background & History
The UAE is not a primary target — Iran is striking Gulf states that host US military bases used in Operation Epic Fury. The UAE hosts Al Dhafra Air Base and Jebel Ali port, both critical US CENTCOM logistics hubs. The French naval base Camp de la Paix near Abu Dhabi has also been struck.
The conflict began on Feb 28 when the US and Israel launched Operation Epic Fury, killing Supreme Leader Khamenei. Iran retaliated across the entire Gulf region. Abu Dhabi and Tehran had previously maintained a “gentlemen's agreement” to avoid direct confrontation — that is now terminated. China has called for an end to the war, warning the “flames of war” risk spreading further.
On April 6, Pakistan brokered a “humanitarian shipping corridor” through the Strait of Hormuz — now expanded to 18-20 vessels/day under Iranian inspection. China began escorting its own tankers with PLA Navy destroyers (Day 34) — second convoy transited safely on Day 40. Israel struck Fordow enrichment facility with bunker busters (Day 33); IAEA assessment (Day 40) found radiation “elevated but not catastrophic” — 2km contamination radius. Iran fired its largest barrage at Israel on Day 35 — 3 missiles broke through, killing 12 in Tel Aviv. Cyber war erupted but banking systems now recovering (Iran ~60%, UAE fully restored). UAE has seen 3 days of zero incoming fire (Days 39-42). Pakistan talks produced draft “framework principles” (Day 42).Oil peaked at $119.50 (Mar 9), now ~$89 — below $90 for first time. Hezbollah rocket fire at lowest since war began. UAE begins limited school reopening.
🔮 Where Is This Heading?
The humanitarian corridor is expanding and holding — 3 days of zero UAE fire, 18-20 vessels transiting daily. The April 13 deadline is 4 days away. De-escalation momentum is real but fragile. Three plausible directions:
Slow De-escalation
Corridor continues expanding past 20 vessels/day. Pakistan/China mediation produces phased framework by April 13: Hormuz reopens further, strikes wind down, some sanctions relief. Oil returns to $80-85 range within weeks.
Why this scenario
Three days zero UAE fire. Corridor expanding (18-20 vessels). IAEA Fordow report less alarming than feared. Oil falling fast ($92). Hezbollah de-escalating. Trump wants a deal before midterms. China's escort creates face-saving pathway.
Key signals to watch
Frozen Conflict
Corridor stabilizes at 18-25 vessels/day instead of 138. Neither side formally ends hostilities. Israel continues limited strikes on Iranian military. Oil settles $85-95 for months.
Why this scenario
Israel wants to keep degrading Iran's military capacity. Iran can't accept a deal that looks like capitulation. Corridor gives everyone just enough to avoid catastrophe. April 13 passes without full resolution.
Key signals to watch
Re-escalation
Corridor collapses — IRGC hardliner orders it shut, or miscalculation triggers spiral. Iran re-mines Hormuz. Oil spikes past $130. China-US confrontation risk.
Why this scenario
IRGC deputy already warned corridor 'can close in 60 seconds.' A stray missile hitting a Chinese vessel, or domestic pressure on Mojtaba Khamenei, could trigger collapse.
Key signals to watch
The China Wildcard
China's military escort through Hormuz (Day 34) is the most significant geopolitical development since the war began. It changes the calculus for everyone: Iran gets a face-saving partner, the US faces a peer competitor in its traditional sphere, and Gulf states gain leverage with both sides.
If China brokers a separate energy deal with Iran — bypassing US sanctions entirely — it could fracture the US-led pressure campaign and create a parallel trading system that outlasts this war. Russia's deployment of the Admiral Gorshkov frigate to the Gulf of Oman suggests Moscow is positioning to benefit from any such arrangement.
Bottom line: This war is no longer just about Iran's nuclear program or Gulf security. It's becoming a proxy for a new global energy order. The corridor's survival — and who controls it — may matter more than any ceasefire.
Key Dates Ahead
April 13
Trump's extended deadline. Corridor must prove viable or power grid strikes resume.
IAEA Report ✓
Preliminary Fordow assessment released Apr 8: radiation “not catastrophic” — 2km radius. Full report pending.
Pakistan Talks — Ongoing
Islamabad talks resumed Apr 8. Iran deputy FM and US envoy met for 4 hours. Framework being drafted.
China Convoy ✓
2nd PLA Navy convoy (5 tankers) transited safely Apr 8. China now a permanent Hormuz presence.
Practical Guide
✈️ Flights & Airspace
Latest (Apr 10)
3 days zero incoming fire
Corridor holding — cautious normalization underway
DXB Airport
Expanding operations
More flights resuming daily — still below pre-war levels
Emirates / Etihad
Increasing capacity
Adding routes daily — some long-haul resuming
UAE Airspace
Open — 3rd day clear
Continuously open since Day 39 — subject to change if corridor fails
Alternative Routes
- ✓Muscat, Oman — Land border open, flights operating (~2hr drive from Dubai)
- ⚠Virgin Atlantic — Resumed London-Dubai route
⚠️ Do NOT go to the airport unless you hold a confirmed ticket and your airline has explicitly told you to travel. Access is restricted to confirmed passengers only.
Live Flight Board
Times shown in Gulf Standard Time (UTC+4). Data via AirLabs.
📈 Markets & Economy
Brent Crude Oil ($/barrel)
+27% since war beganPre-war: ~$70/bbl. Peak: $119.50 intraday (Mar 9). Current: ~$89 — below $90 for first time. Framework principles drafted at Pakistan talks. Goldman Sachs: “sub-$85 if April 13 produces deal.” Supply disruption easing (~12%).
Economic Indicators: Before vs Now
Pre-war
$70/bbl
Now
~$89/bbl
Pre-war
$5,296/oz
Now
~$4,650/oz
Pre-war
₹87.5
Now
₹91.8
Pre-war
~5,950
Now
~5,760
Pre-war
~23,100
Now
~21,900
Pre-war
~5,200
Now
~4,630
Pre-war
138 ships/day
Now
~22 ships/day
Pre-war
25.1M bbl/day
Now
11.2M bbl/day
Data approximate as of Apr 10, 2026. Oil peaked at $119.50 (Mar 9), now ~$89 — below $90 for first time. Framework principles drafted at Pakistan talks. Goldman Sachs: “sub-$85 if April 13 produces deal.” De-escalation momentum building.
Global Stock Market Impact
Since Feb 28Recovering on corridor expansion and oil drop. Framework hopes lifting sentiment.
Recovering from -21% low. +3.4% today on framework news. Banks fully restored.
Energy weight limits losses. 4 days zero fire boosting confidence.
Recovering as oil drops below $90. Yen stabilizing.
Energy fears easing on corridor expansion
Recovering from -7% low. +1.2% today on framework news.
Recovering as oil drops. Energy crisis easing.
Oil majors mixed — lower crude offsets recovery hopes
Commodity volatility easing. LNG still elevated.
Global Markets Since War Began
Feb 28 → Apr 10Key pattern: Corridor deal (Apr 6) triggered sharp rally across all markets. DFM recovering strongly from -21% low (+3.4% on framework news). US markets (-3.2%) outperforming. Asia recovering (Nikkei -7%). Oil below $90 boosting sentiment. Framework principles drafted at Pakistan talks — April 13 deadline could accelerate gains if deal materializes.
Lessons From History: Oil Crises Compared
The 2026 Iran war is the first major oil crisis with the Strait of Hormuz closed (now partially reopened via humanitarian corridor). IEA calls it the “greatest global energy and food security challenge in history.”
OAPEC embargo after Yom Kippur War
Oil
+300%
$3→$12
S&P 500
-48%
Recovery
6 years (nominal), 20 years (real)
Duration
6 months
Hormuz
Open
Supply lost
~7%
Shah overthrown, Iran-Iraq tensions
Oil
+179%
$14→$39
S&P 500
-17%
Recovery
~2 years
Duration
12 months
Hormuz
Threatened
Supply lost
~7%
Iraq invades Kuwait
Oil
+135%
$17→$42
S&P 500
-16%
Recovery
~6 months
Duration
3 months
Hormuz
Open
Supply lost
~9%
Russian invasion, sanctions
Oil
+68%
$76→$128
S&P 500
-7%
Recovery
~9 months
Duration
6 months (oil spike)
Hormuz
Open
Supply lost
~3%
US-Israel strike Iran, Hormuz corridor
Oil
+27% (framework drafted)
$70→$119
S&P 500
-3.2% (recovering)
Recovery
TBD
Duration
42 days (ongoing)
Hormuz
CORRIDOR
Supply lost
~12% (was 20%)
What History Tells Us
- 1.Short wars = fast recovery. The 1990 Gulf War ended in 3 months — S&P rebounded 26-29% the following year. The 2022 oil spike faded in ~6 months.
- 2.Prolonged shocks = stagflation risk. 1973 lasted 6 months and led to a 20-year bear market in real terms. Duration matters more than peak price.
- 3.2026 is unprecedented. First time Hormuz was fully closed (20% of global supply). Humanitarian corridor now open but fragile — only 15 vessels/day vs 138 pre-war. China's military escort adds new geopolitical dimension.
- 4.US more insulated than before. US is now a net oil exporter (unlike 1973). Households spend 3% of income on energy vs 8-9% in the 1970s. But Asia and Europe face much higher exposure.
- 5.Average 12-month return after crises: +8%. Historically, markets recover to long-run trends within a year — but only after the shock ends. The corridor's survival is the key variable this time — and cyber war adds a new front.
Strait of Hormuz — Daily Vessel Transits
-84%Current status
Corridor expanding
20-22 vessels/day under Iranian inspection
China PLA Navy
2nd convoy transited
5 tankers escorted safely Apr 8 — permanent presence
Pre-war: ~138 vessels/day. Corridor expanding — 20-22 vessels/day as of Apr 10, up from 15 on opening day. Framework principles drafted at Pakistan talks. Still -84% from normal traffic but trending upward. April 13 deadline 3 days away — framework could accelerate reopening.
Energy & Critical Infrastructure Hit
Energy war expanded to nuclear facilities (Fordow, Day 33) and cyber attacks on banking systems (Day 36). QatarEnergy: Ras Laffan repairs could take 10-20 years. Iran state TV HQ struck.
World's largest gas field. 70% of Iran's gas production disabled.
Iran's main oil export terminal. 15+ explosions. Major disruption.
4 gas treatment plants damaged. Gas flow to Iraq halted.
World's largest LNG terminal. 'Extensive damage'. 3-5yr repairs. 17% global LNG wiped.
Kuwait's largest refinery hit 2 days in a row. Fires across units. Shut down.
Fire from drone strike. World's largest man-made harbour.
Drone ignited fuel storage. Flights disrupted for hours.
Critical water infrastructure hit. Supply disruptions.
Underground facility hit with GBU-57 bunker busters. IAEA: 'concerning' radiation near Natanz.
Tehran headquarters struck. 22 journalists killed. Global condemnation.
Entire banking system taken offline by cyber attack. Partial restoration underway.
Iranian Attack Intensity
Relative intensity (not absolute counts). Iran surged to 50+ on Day 35 (largest barrage at Israel). Day 38 corridor deal led to sharp drop. Days 39-42: four consecutive zero-fire days for UAE. Hezbollah conditional pause. Israel continues limited strikes on IRGC targets.
Countries Affected
7,200+ killed (HRANA/WaPo)
Banking system ~70% restored. Framework principles drafted. Israel reduced to 1-2 strikes/day.
12 killed, 185 injured
395 missiles, 2,050 drones intercepted. 4 days zero fire. Schools/malls reopening.
34+ killed, 5,100+ injured
Reduced strikes to 1-2/day on IRGC targets. Hezbollah conditional pause announced.
1,290+ killed, 3,950+ injured
Hezbollah announces conditional pause. 1.2M+ displaced. 160+ children killed.
Ras Laffan damaged
QatarEnergy: repairs could take 10-20 years. 17% global LNG disrupted.
3 killed
140+ missiles and 220+ drones intercepted. US 5th Fleet base targeted.
11 killed
Shuaiba port hit again (Day 32). Mina Al-Ahmadi refinery still offline.
4 killed
14 drones intercepted over Jubail industrial city (Day 36). Eastern Province on high alert.
65+ killed (incl. 6 US airmen)
KC-135 crash. PMF members killed. 1 US soldier killed by IED (Day 32).
4,200 evacuated from UAE
Nifty recovering (-6.5%). Special Air India evacuation flights. 85% oil imports at risk.
Economic impact
Nikkei recovering (-7%). Ship hit near Hormuz (Japanese-flagged). 30 days oil reserves released.
Military intervention
PLA Navy escorting tankers — 2 convoys transited safely. 3rd convoy scheduled Apr 11.
8,800+ killed total
Oil ~$89 (below $90 for first time). Framework principles drafted. Hezbollah conditional pause.
Cyber War
Cooling
Iran banking ~60% restored. UAE banks fully back. No new attacks since Apr 6.
Banks
Operational
UAE fully restored. ATMs normal. Some Iran SWIFT delays.
💡 Tip: ATMs are working but expect queues. Withdraw cash for essential purchases. Keep AED 500-1000 on hand.
🚨 Emergency Contacts
UAE Emergency Numbers
Embassies (Abu Dhabi)
🏠 During an Alert
⚡ Immediate Steps
- 1Move to an interior room (no windows)
- 2Stay away from glass, mirrors, and exterior walls
- 3If in a high-rise: go to lower floors or interior stairwell
- 4If outside: enter the nearest solid building immediately
- 5If driving: pull over safely, stay low in the car
- 6Do NOT touch debris or shrapnel — may be hazardous
✅ Best Locations
- • Bathroom (interior, small windows)
- • Interior hallway
- • Stairwell (interior)
- • Underground parking
- • Ground floor interior room
❌ Avoid
- • Windows and glass doors
- • Balconies
- • Exterior walls
- • Top floors of buildings
- • Open areas / outdoors
🧳 Supplies Checklist
Essential Supplies
Important Documents
🎒 Keep a grab bag near the door with passport, phone charger, water, cash, and medications. If you need to leave fast, grab it and go.
🚪 If You Need to Leave
🚗 Land Routes
Oman via Hatta Border
~2hr from Dubai • Border OPEN • Most reliable option
Saudi Arabia via Abu Samra
Check current status • May require visa • Longer route
✈️ Flights From Neighboring Countries
Muscat, Oman (MCT)
Emirates/Oman Air operating some routes • Book ASAP • Prices elevated
Jeddah / Riyadh, Saudi
Limited availability • Saudia operating reduced schedule
🏛️ Embassy evacuation: Contact your embassy for assisted evacuation if you cannot arrange travel independently. Many embassies are organizing group evacuations.
⚠️ Book early — prices are high and availability is limited. Land routes to Oman are the most reliable current option.
📡 Stay Informed
✅ Official Sources
- •NCEMA — @NCABORHAP_NCEMA (Twitter/X)
- •Dubai Media Office — @DXBMediaOffice
- •WAM — Emirates News Agency (wam.ae)
- •Your embassy — Check for country-specific advisories
❌ Avoid
- • Unverified social media accounts
- • Forwarded WhatsApp messages
- • Sensationalist / clickbait accounts
- • “Breaking news” from unknown sources
📱 Mobile & internet are working normally. Enable NCEMA push notifications on your phone. Keep your phone charged at all times.